UKHSA have finally released death data...
First impressions.
POSTSCRIPT:
After finishing writing the conclusion for this article I went back to Clare's article and read it again. None of the data made sense.
I realized I made a mistake in one of my assumptions, but decided to publish the article regardless so others don't make the same mistake.
The key statement is:
"When one person dies, it is recorded in this data as a death following each of the doses of vaccine they have ever had".
This is a big deal. It means that if they had 3 doses their death will be counted in 3 buckets. (**Which is different to the New Zealand data.**)
Nonetheless, this could explain the "phase shift" between the oldest age groups, if the vaccination cadence was prioritized according to people's age.
It could also explain why the oscillation pattern is so pronounced in the older age groups. The frequency is exactly 4 weeks. (I wouldn't push this too far because the data is so coarse, but is definitely worth investigating further.)
The major observation that still hold true are:
- The trend for the first dose, in nearly all the age brackets is moving in the wrong direction. (The trend for the fourth dose in the 75-79 age group is particularly worrisome.)
- The HVE for all doses (especially the latter doses) makes no sense
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To be clear, the title on all the plots are wrong. I.e. Number of deaths vs week for the FIRST dose only..., should be: "Number of deaths vs week for individuals who received at least one dose".Dr Clare Craig recently posted a substack that has an official link to download the UKHSA death data she has been asking for since February 2023…
(The lack of cooperation and full transparency is a clear sign they are trying to hide something. If the vaccine program was as successful as they claim they would have no qualms publishing the data and basking in their triumph.
As Dr. Clare judicially pointed out:
Perhaps the UKHSA mixes in very different circles to me, but the bereaved that I know are all too keen that deaths be properly investigated.
Indeed!)
In any case, we now have some data to work with, it’s not ideal, but it still might be useful. (My understanding is that Clare is still fighting to get more fine grained data.)
The data has 7 columns:
ID
Record Count (i.e. the number of deaths)
Age group of first dose
Dose number
Dose date administered week commencing
Date of death month commencing
Country
The age group starts at 20 and progresses in increments of 5 year. It stops at 80+ which is not particularly helpful. The older age groups are the most important, so having more granularity there would have been better (i.e. 80-84, 85-89, 90-94, 95-99 and then 100+).
We are approaching the data from a HVE (Healthy Vaccinee Effect) perspective. See Prof. Norman Fenton’s recent article. Specifically:
To ‘explain’ the spikes the ONS pushed the implicit assumption that there was a phenomenon called the 'healthy vaccinee' effect, whereby they claimed that people ‘close to death’ were not vaccinated. And they made this bold claim without any data to support it whatsoever.
Apart from the fact that this would have contradicted the NHS policy at the time we showed that, while a healthy vaccinee effect might have partly explained the longer term lower non-covid mortality rates in the vaccinated, it could not possibly have explained those spikes in mortality rates.
(We also noticed a strong HVE pattern in the New Zealand data. Perhaps too strong…)
We will write our observations first and then provide the plots to support them.
Observations
The data is really not fine grained enough to complete a full and detailed (conclusive) analysis, however there is enough data to make some observations and start a conversation:
The HVE is abnormal in nearly all age groups and for all doses
The oscillation nature of the data for older age groups is questionable
Exacerbated by the fact that there seems to be a consistent phase shift between them
Plots
Number of deaths for the oldest age groups for the FIRST dose only, for the first 50 weeks
First 6 to 7 weeks have a strong HVE pattern
Large oscillations, especially for the 70—74 age groups
Oscillations between age groups have a consistent phase shift which needs to be explained
(We purposely did not include the 80+ age group as the bucket size is too large to compare with the other age groups)
The trend for each age group is upwards, which is not what we would expect if the vaccines were “safe and effective”.
Our understanding is that an individual moves from one “dose bucket” to another as soon as they receive a new dose. If this assumption is correct, then the cohort of people that only received one dose should dramatically decrease after 4 weeks, as more and more people receive their second dose. I.e. the number of people who received “one dose only” should dramatically decrease after 4 weeks, and since there are less people in that cohort the number of deaths should also dramatically decrease.
We can see from the plot that this is clearly not happening, so either:
Our assumption is wrong (which is likely)
We have a serious problem on our hands
The data is highly manipulated
(Something else?… All of the above?)
Number of deaths for the oldest age groups for the FIRST dose only, for the full horizon (140 weeks)
The trend never really comes down significantly until the very end.
The peak, which is noticeable in all 3 age groups around the 2 year mark, is concerning.
Number of deaths for the youngest age groups for the FIRST dose only, for the first 50 weeks
The youngest age group also shows a strong HVE in the first 6 to 7 weeks.
Does that really make any sense?
Are we really able to accurately predict that people in this age group are going to die in the next 5 to 6 weeks and not vaccinate them?
Or does the vaccine have super powers that prevents people from dying of any and all causes (including car accidents, suicide etc..) for the first 7 weeks? (<sarcasm>).
Note: The younger age groups do not exhibit the oscillation pattern that is present in the older age group. The younger age group plots look more “normal” after week 12.
Number of deaths for the oldest age groups for the SECOND dose only, for the first 50 weeks
Do we really expect to see HVE for the second dose?
Number of deaths for the oldest age groups for the THIRD dose only, for the first 50 weeks
Do we really expect to see HVE for the third dose? (really?!?)
Notice the oscillation have disappeared here and the plots look more as we would expect.
Number of deaths for the oldest age groups for the FOURTH dose only, for the first 50 weeks
Wow, amazingly there is a HVE for the fourth dose as well. <sarcasm>
The trend for the 75-79 age group doesn’t support a “safe and effective” vaccine.
Conclusion
This data poses more questions than it answers.
I’m posting this to start a conversation.
Can anyone reproduce?
Can anyone correct my assumptions?
Thanks!
You quoted Fenton et al. as writing that the HVE "could not possibly have explained those spikes in mortality rates". But in Barry's NZ data people with n-1 doses also had huge spikes in ASMR when the nth dose was rolled out (even though there were no cheap tricks involved): sars2.net/moar.html#Excess_ASMR_compared_to_reported_mortality_data_in_New_Zealand. I have tried to get Neil and Fenton to calculate ASMR by month and dose in the NZ data, but I don't think I have been successful.
You observed that "HVE is abnormal in nearly all age groups and for all doses". However there is also a strong HVE in the ONS dataset for mortality by vaccination status.'
You pointed out that the youngest age groups had a fairly strong HVE in the first couple of weeks after vaccination. However in old versions of the ONS dataset for mortality by vaccination status up to the version published in July 2022, there was an extra table which showed the number of COVID and non-COVID deaths by weeks after vaccination and age group. It showed that ages 10-39 had only about 60% the normal number of deaths during the first week after vaccination, even though the number of deaths was already close to the normal range by the second week: sars2.net/stat.html#Plot_deaths_by_weeks_after_vaccination_and_age_group.
You were also asking if there would be HVE for the second to fourth doses. But for example in the ONS dataset for mortality by vaccination status, October 2021 was the first month when a large number of people were included under the third dose. But in October 2021 compared to the general population of England, people with 3 doses had about -50% to -70% excess CMR depending on the age group (apart from ages 18-39 which had about -10% excess CMR): sars2.net/stat.html#Plot_excess_mortality_by_dose. In Barry's dataset there's also a strong HVE for the second, third, and fourth doses: sars2.net/i/moar-excess-week-age.png.