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You quoted Fenton et al. as writing that the HVE "could not possibly have explained those spikes in mortality rates". But in Barry's NZ data people with n-1 doses also had huge spikes in ASMR when the nth dose was rolled out (even though there were no cheap tricks involved): sars2.net/moar.html#Excess_ASMR_compared_to_reported_mortality_data_in_New_Zealand. I have tried to get Neil and Fenton to calculate ASMR by month and dose in the NZ data, but I don't think I have been successful.

You observed that "HVE is abnormal in nearly all age groups and for all doses". However there is also a strong HVE in the ONS dataset for mortality by vaccination status.'

You pointed out that the youngest age groups had a fairly strong HVE in the first couple of weeks after vaccination. However in old versions of the ONS dataset for mortality by vaccination status up to the version published in July 2022, there was an extra table which showed the number of COVID and non-COVID deaths by weeks after vaccination and age group. It showed that ages 10-39 had only about 60% the normal number of deaths during the first week after vaccination, even though the number of deaths was already close to the normal range by the second week: sars2.net/stat.html#Plot_deaths_by_weeks_after_vaccination_and_age_group.

You were also asking if there would be HVE for the second to fourth doses. But for example in the ONS dataset for mortality by vaccination status, October 2021 was the first month when a large number of people were included under the third dose. But in October 2021 compared to the general population of England, people with 3 doses had about -50% to -70% excess CMR depending on the age group (apart from ages 18-39 which had about -10% excess CMR): sars2.net/stat.html#Plot_excess_mortality_by_dose. In Barry's dataset there's also a strong HVE for the second, third, and fourth doses: sars2.net/i/moar-excess-week-age.png.

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